these guys say it better than I ever could....
From A World to Win News Service:
Ukraine: The Wolves Are Loose
Feburary 24, 2014 | Revolution Newspaper | revcom.us
February 24, 2014. A World to Win News Service. "Ukraine is now in a pre-default condition and sliding into the abyss," Alexander Turchynov warned immediately after becoming speaker of the Ukrainian parliament and the country's acting president. Ukraine needs $35 billion over the next two years and an emergency loan in the next two weeks just to pay its creditors in the East and West. Those creditors are engaged in a mutual tug of war which neither side can afford to lose, and maybe not afford to win. But much more than cash is at stake.
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The Ukraine governing party and most of the so-called "oligarchs" suddenly deserted President Victor Yanukovych and brought in Turchynov, an ally of Yulia Tymoshenko, the darling of the European Union (EU), especially Germany. Becoming filthy rich overnight when the country's state enterprises were dissolved, she was one of the first of Ukraine's "oligarchs" and a fitting embodiment of this class, who may be weaker and less adept at hiding their flesh-eating nature than their Western counterparts, but are no less monopoly capitalists. Like the now-deposed Yanukovych and the rest, none of them are loyal to "democratic values" or even any particular foreign power but only to the needs of their chunk of capital to expand without limit in lethal competition with other capitals.
This is not the first time that the U.S. and Europe have tried to snatch Ukraine away from Russia. The so-called "Orange Revolution" of 2004-05 exacerbated an economic and political crisis that led Ukraine to where it is today, and that underlying crisis is far from resolved.
In 2004 the West engineered street demonstrations that snatched the presidency away from Yanukovych and brought Tymoshenko and Victor Yushchenko to government. Despite her Western support, Tymoshenko's signature political move was a deal with the Russian monopoly Gazprom that was politically advantageous for her but so disadvantageous to Ukraine that by 2010 Yanukovych was back in the presidency and she was imprisoned for corruption. Though considered pro-Russian, Yanukovych entered into negotiations with the EU for a free trade agreement with it. Then last November he suddenly turned around, refused to sign after all, and instead accepted a Russian deal for $15 billion in loans and a one-third reduction in gas prices.
So much for loyalty or even predictability among any of Ukraine's leaders. His reversal, however, was not irrational: it seems that the IMF wanted to impose conditions that might have brought even greater political instability and not the relief that his debt-ridden regime needed to survive. He tried playing off Russia and the EU, and in the end neither saved him.
The youth and others who angrily took to the streets chanting "We want in to the European Union" were badly deluded. Why would the EU or the IMF treat Ukraine any differently than Greece, for example? Germany and other European powers (notably France) skinned Greece twice, once by lending it enormous amounts of money for a "development" that meant importing capital and consumer goods at a rate that helped keep the German economy humming, and then again, when the financial crisis meant that Greece couldn't pay, by forcing the country to make "adjustments" that drove millions of Greeks into destitution so that foreign capital could recover its principal and interest.
Look at Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, the Baltic states and other former Soviet-bloc countries that have entered the EU—where has that gotten them? Perhaps young Ukrainians hoped that EU ties would bring their country's living standards up to the slightly higher level of neighboring Poland, which used to own western Ukraine. But one of that country's leading exports is young Polish women and men. Becoming more like Poland is not a revolutionary aspiration.
A country of 46 million people, Ukraine became independent in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The world's tenth largest steel producer, it has very developed agricultural and industrial sectors, but its dependence on exporting steel and steel products has made the country highly vulnerable to the global financial turmoil as well as Russian pressure. Its geo-strategic location provides a vital energy transit route from Russia to Western Europe. About 60 percent of Ukraine exports go to Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Natural gas, used to fuel industry as well as for household consumption, is the biggest import and the main cause of its trade deficit. Ukrainian external debts grew from $23.8 billion in December 2003 to $137.7 billion in September 2013.
The U.S. and EU-backed and financed "Orange Revolution" from 2005-2010 was not able to bring about structural economic changes and rearrange Ukraine's political landscape. That would have required strategic political and astronomical financial commitments they were not able to deliver, entangled as they were in wars of occupation in Iraq and Afghanistan and especially as they sank into financial crisis.
The effects of the global financial crisis on Russia during this period were not so severe. Due to rising prices for its oil and gas exports, Russia accumulated huge currency reserves. In some aspects it began to reverse the weak situation it found itself in after the collapse of the USSR in the early 1990s.
At the same time, the emergence of renewed imperialist rivalry and the rise of capitalist China, along with the global financial crisis, has forced the big powers to take greater risks to advance their spheres of influence in every dimension: strategic, political and economic. Ukraine, the biggest non-Russian piece of the shattered Soviet Union, has become one focus of global contradictions.
Germany in particular, already a major trading partner with Ukraine, has been anxious to tear more deeply into this relatively large country and its plentiful natural resources, highly developed industry and export-oriented agriculture. It is a prime market for exported capital and commodities, with a fairly young, skilled and educated labor force accustomed to low pay. German dominance over Ukraine could change the balance of power within the European Union and more broadly.
Yet while Europe and especially Germany have been poised to devour Ukraine, the U.S. has been intensely involved as well, often out of synch with Germany, if not in open opposition. While Obama and Europe's governments are hailing Yanukovych's downfall as "the will" of the Ukrainian people, no Ukrainian desires and interests were even an issue in the famous leaked phone call between U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and the American ambassador to Ukraine. They discussed exactly whom they would and would not accept as the future leader of Ukraine, and agreed that the transition should be brokered by the UN to take the EU out of the decision-making process—"Fuck the EU," Nuland concludes.
As it turned out, an exit plan for Yanukovych was put together by the foreign ministers of Germany, France and Poland, which Russia refused to sign, as it argued that it would only help pave the way for the opposition to Yanukovych to get rid of him. In any case, for the moment he's vanished.
American firepower is still Washington's ultimate argument. It was implicit in U.S. National Security Advisor Susan Rice's warning to Russia not to send in troops. Opposition to foreign interference rings hollow from the country that occupied Iraq and Afghanistan, led the armed overthrow of the Qaddafi regime and recently threatened military action against Syria and Iran. Not to mention its activities in its own "back yard"—the annexation of a big chunk of Mexico and a century of fattening on the wealth created by Mexicans. The concern Washington displayed for the fate of demonstrators under attack in Kiev's main square (Maidan) was nowhere to be seen when the Obama government coordinated the violent clearing of the parks taken over by the far more peaceful Occupy movement in the U.S.
The U.S. 2008 adventure at encouraging Georgia to fight Russia ended in humiliation for Washington, but the stakes for both the U.S. and Russia are now much higher.
For the U.S. and Russia especially, the chief issue is Ukraine's strategic importance to Russia's re-emergence as a great power. A tighter alliance of Ukraine with Russia could help Russia bring its former republics into line, especially the more reluctant such as Azerbaijan and to some extent Georgia. Conversely, Ukraine's further separation would make such a dream for Russia much more difficult and complicated, and encourage more mutiny within Russia's sphere of influence. Putin's plan for a Eurasian Economic Union could not prosper without the biggest and richest of the six non-Russian ex-Soviet states.
Russia's policy has apparently been to encourage contradictions between the EU and the U.S. and lean towards the EU conditionally to isolate the U.S. During the political crisis of the last months, while some forces in Ukraine demanded the resignation of the president, pro-EU forces and Germany proposed a dialogue and reform without a change in president. Even now that Yanukovych is out of the picture, it seems that Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin have been negotiating over the phone, perhaps, according to some observers, discussing the idea of putting in Tymoshenko, ironically one of the least anti-Russian aspirants, as a kind of compromise head of state.
The Ukrainian ruling class seems to have regrouped against Yanukovych. Even his own party disowned him. "All responsibility for this lies with Yanukovych," the Party of Regions said in a statement. "The party was virtually the hostage of one corrupt family." It should be noted that the state apparatus has not suffered. In fact, although parliament has called for other ex-ministers to be arrested and tried, the Defense Ministry has not changed hands and the country's large armed forces seem to have approved the anti-Yanukovych consensus. At the same time, it is not at all clear what kind of stable political alliance could replace him.
As pushed around as it has been, Ukraine itself is a relatively developed monopoly capitalist country whose ruling class has its own needs and ambitions. While members of that class may clash among themselves about foreign alliances, they have a certain unity of interests. Most probably see the current situation as an opportunity to "free" Ukrainian capital from its subordinate position or at least improve that position. This is a major reason why the situation is so volatile.
It is almost unbelievable but not impossible to understand that cries against the "Muscovite Jewish mafia" and "Russian Jewish communist domination" should be heard in the streets of Ukraine today. These were the slogans of Ukrainian nationalists who saw the Nazi German invasion in World War 2 as an opportunity to seek the overthrow of the socialism that four million Ukrainians fought and died to defend. Rather than being oppressed by the Soviet Union, it was as a Soviet Republic that Ukraine came into existence as a political entity for the first time in history and that its people were able to blossom as never before.
In the beginning of the Maidan movement, students played a major role and there seemed to be a broad political mix of people. However, according to reports, it was increasingly dominated by the Svoboda party, the historically pro-Nazi party said to have led the seizure of the Kiev city hall that triggered Yanukovych's flight, and the even more openly fascistic paramilitary bands grouped together in the Right Sector. These fascist currents seem to be an expression of the national interests of Ukrainian capital in its opposition to as well as collusion with foreign capitalist powers. The central role of these elements in Yanukovych's downfall signals a dangerous political and ideological dynamic that cannot be turned off at will.
Extreme reactionary ideology is not, however, the special mark of one side or the other in the fight for power. The debate between pro-U.S. and pro-Russian commentators about which side are the real fascists is wrong and self-serving. The Ukrainian chauvinist racism directed at Jews and ethnic Russians by the anti-Russian gangs is matched by the patriarchal obscurantism of pro-Russian forces (including Yanukovych himself) who insist Ukraine must not join the EU because the result would be homosexual marriages and the end of Christian "values."
To the extent that there is an ideological battle going on, it is not about "Western versus Russian values" or "democracy" versus "dictatorship"—Yanukovych was repeatedly elected—but about Ukrainian nationalism. Again, whether or not Tymoshenko's bad health and political circumstances allow her to come back onto the centre stage, she is a case study in that phenomenon. Brought up speaking Russian, she has said she had to learn to think in Ukrainian and came to oppose allowing Russian as a second official language because of the need to unite the country—which of course has long been united, with many speakers of four different languages, but whose capitalists need a different political climate to achieve their ends as a national capitalist class. One of the first moves of the new acting government was to end Russian's status as a second official language anywhere in Ukraine.
What we are seeing now are the tragic reverberations of the restoration of capitalism in the USSR after the death of Stalin, on the one hand, and on the other a cynical fight among the big imperialist powers not only over who gets to feed on Ukraine and its people but ultimately for empire.
Ukraine is in more turmoil than Europe has seen since the dismemberment of Yugoslavia. While there are major differences in the two situations, they bear some similarity in the rapacious and reckless ambitions of the leading imperialist powers, especially Germany, the U.S. and Russia; the rapidly shifting splits and alliances, domestic and foreign, of the country's capitalist ruling class; and the fostering of reactionary mass movements driven by these interests. But the world has changed, especially in the last decade, and the West cannot expect an easy victory.
Regardless of immediate events, given this context it is unlikely that such a complex situation will be soon resolved. The wolves have tasted blood.
A World to Win News Service is put out by A World to Win magazine, a political and theoretical review inspired by the formation of the Revolutionary Internationalist Movement, the embryonic center of the world's Marxist-Leninist-Maoist parties and organizations.
AND ALSO READ THIS !!!!!.....
Ukraine: Not a “Democratic Uprising” but a Clash Between Predators
Updated March 3, 2014 | Revolution Newspaper | revcom.us
Editor's note: The following is an updated version of an article originally posted at revcom.us March 1, 2014
The central European country of Ukraine is being convulsed by conflict and upheaval. As events continue to unfold, what is coming even more to the fore as this crisis has intensified is the jockeying for position and geopolitical advantage by rival imperialist powers—with the potential to escalate into direct great-power confrontation.
The week from February 18 to 23 witnessed a dramatic and rapid unfolding of events: mass protests centered in the capital Kiev, violent state repression and armed street fighting; behind-the-scenes maneuvering by reactionary forces in and outside Ukraine, the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych and the formation of a new government.
As we go to press, Russian troops have occupied an airport and other areas near the Russian naval base in the Crimea region of Ukraine. Obama has threatened "There will be costs for any [Russian] military intervention in Ukraine."
But people are being systematically lied to and misled about what's behind the dangerous tensions in Ukraine. When Barack Obama went on TV on February 28 to claim that the U.S. is motivated by the desires and interests of the people of Ukraine and their ability to "determine their own future," he lied.
Overwhelmingly, the main aspect of what took place in late February in the streets and government offices of Ukraine was not a "popular revolt." What's going on in the streets and in the Ukrainian halls of power is not a battle between "oligarchs and democrats," or between corrupt Soviet-style autocrats and enlightened pro-Western, anti-corruption activists. And the actions of the major players involved—the United States, European powers, Russia—and among the rulers in Ukraine are most certainly not about "democracy," much less the actual interests of the people of Ukraine or anywhere else.
The events in late February were essentially a battle within the Ukrainian capitalist ruling class—inextricably bound up with and profoundly shaped by rivalry between oppressive great powers—in particular between the U.S. and the European Union on one side and Russia on the other. What has emerged even more since is intense jockeying for position and geopolitical advantage by rival imperialist powers—again, with the potential to escalate to direct great-power confrontation. Within this context, different sections of the Ukrainian people are being manipulated and used to serve reactionary and imperialist aims. Nothing good can come of this struggle on its current terms and in its current configuration. (The nature of the various forces in the streets and in the halls of power in Ukraine is beyond the scope of this article. For a more in-depth analysis, see "Ukraine: The Wolves Are Loose.")
The sudden turn of events—the collapse of the government of Ukrainian President Yanukovych and the ensuing chaos—underscores how these rivalries and other conflicts are sharpening, and how the "tectonic plates" of world relations are shifting on many different fronts. These can lead to sharp jolts and unexpected transformations, which could in turn ripple across the globe.
Background to the Upheaval—the History and Strategic Significance of Ukraine
Ukraine is a country of 45 million people, geostrategically located in relation to Russia, Europe, the Middle East, and the Black Sea.
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What today constitutes the nation of Ukraine first emerged as a state in the 17th century, and by the end of the 18th century had largely been incorporated into the reactionary Czarist Russian Empire. In 1917, the Czarist Empire was overthrown by something new and unprecedented: the socialist revolution in Russian and the formation of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), which included Ukraine. This was a radically different kind of society until socialism was reversed and capitalism restored in 1956. (For the real story of the nature and significance of the Soviet Union from 1917 to 1956, see: You Don't Know What You Think You "Know" About...The Communist Revolution and the REAL Path to Emancipation: Its History and Our Future; and thisiscommunism.org.)
From 1956 until 1991, the Soviet Union was an imperialist power (even though it called itself "communist") locked in sharp confrontation with the U.S. imperialists—what was known as the Cold War. Ukraine was part of the Soviet bloc of countries until the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. It then became formally independent and was run by a new, openly capitalist ruling class.
Ukraine is rich agriculturally, industrially developed, and strategically located between Russia, Europe, and the Middle East. Today pipelines carrying Russian natural gas crisscross the country. The country straddles the Black Sea (which connects to the Mediterranean Sea), and Russia's Black Sea fleet is based in Crimea, a part of Ukraine. Russia considers Ukraine key to its military position.
After the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine became the focal point of a new wave of contention between the U.S., Europe, and Russia. That contention is the main driving force in the upheaval now gripping the country. Broadly speaking, since 1991, the rulers of the U.S. have assessed that it is essential to maintaining their empire to lock in global supremacy, including by hemming Russia in and preventing it from re-emerging as a global challenger. A key element of this strategy has been working with its European imperialist allies to absorb former Soviet bloc countries into the European Economic Union and the U.S.-led NATO military alliance. (Ukraine has sought NATO membership.)
Meanwhile, Russia's capitalist rulers are driven to rebuild Russian power and influence. In part, this involves attempting to reassert their influence over bordering countries once part of the Soviet bloc, including by using their enormous energy resources as economic and geopolitical leverage.
From 1991 on, these predatory imperialists—the U.S. and the European Union on one side (though the U.S. and Western Europe each have their own strategic agendas) and Russia on the other—have generally been in direct contradiction, even as there are times when these rival powers cooperate for their own reactionary interests.
The Hypocrisy of "Defending Ukrainian Sovereignty"
The news is filled with representatives of the U.S. ruling class denouncing Russian moves in Ukraine as clear violations of Ukrainian sovereignty.
The hypocrisy is astounding.
A leaked audio of a phone call between a top U.S. State Department official and the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine revealed these officials discussing which representative of the Ukraine ruling class should replace Yanukovych and how to effect that change. Remember, Yanukovych, yes, a representative of the oppressive Ukrainian ruling class, was nevertheless the elected president of the country. Imagine high-level operatives of some other country discussing, in the midst of the recent budget crisis in the U.S., for example, how to replace the president of the United States with a more malleable ally (one who they could better manipulate to serve their own interests).
And then U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry railed that "You just don't in the 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pretext."
Really!? Did Kerry forget the long list of U.S. invasions, coups and proxy wars in the 20th and 21st centuries, from southern Africa to Iran, from Vietnam to Iraq—all justified by one "trumped up pretext" after another. What was the invasion of Iraq—justified by the "trumped up pretext" of "weapons of mass destruction?" Millions and millions of people died as a result of these U.S. coups, proxy wars, and invasions.
Actually, Kerry meant you can do anything under any pretext if you are the United States, but you can't do it if you're messing with the interests of the U.S. Empire.
The Clash Over Ukraine
When Obama claims the U.S. is protecting the interests of the people of Ukraine, he's lying. Again, the leaked exchange by U.S. operatives discussing how to effect regime change in Ukraine doesn't even mention the interests of the people.
But when Obama says the U.S. is "deeply concerned" about the situation, he's not lying. Ukraine has been a focus of the clash between these powers, and the U.S., Europe, and Russia have all been deeply involved in shaping events in the country. For instance, in 2004, the Orange Revolution brought to power, with direct U.S. and European support, ruling class forces favorable to drawing closer to the West. Russia countered on a number of fronts, including in 2006 cutting off natural gas supplies to Ukraine to weaken the government. Meanwhile, Ukraine has been gripped with economic crisis, a facet of the current shocks and crises of global capitalism, and many have been suffering greatly.
This past November things came to a head. Ukraine has been desperately seeking international financial and economic aid. Such international "aid" packages are shaped by the imperatives of global capitalism and by the geopolitical interests of the "donor" countries. The U.S. and the EU have been offering Ukraine "aid" in the form of closer integration into the EU and possibly an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout. But these would involve adhering to their strictures. These often include severe austerity measures, including slashing social safety nets and sharply increasing the price of basic commodities like food, public transportation and energy—measures which have literally starved and killed people and also led to mass rebellion, for example in Greece.
Russia countered, offering Ukraine $15 billion in aid and cheap natural gas, without, reportedly, demanding that Ukraine reject Western "aid." Apparently, Yanukovych felt the Russian deal was a better option for stabilizing the situation, perhaps fearing the kind of discontent and revolt that accompanied IMF-imposed measures in Greece, and signed it. This outraged the Western imperialists and various factions of the Ukrainian ruling class, who escalated their protests and behind-the-scenes jockeying. Top U.S. and European officials have been in direct contact with Ukrainian government and bourgeois opposition figures and have gone to Ukraine to personally support anti-Yanukovych protests.
This global rivalry set the stage for the February 18-22 surge of clashes and the implosion of Yanukovych's government. On February 22, a deal brokered by U.S. allies Germany and Poland to temporarily ease the crisis was signed by President Yanukovych and Ukraine's bourgeois opposition. The New York Timesreported: "A rejection of Russian aid seems to have been one of the conditions set....Europe and the United States have been leaning heavily on Kiev to accept that only a Western aid package led by the International Monetary Fund can rescue Ukraine's economy." ("With President's Departure, Ukraine Looks Toward a Murky Future").
The situation remains fluid and extremely volatile, with sections of people being mobilized around a range of reactionary programs, armed forces aligned with Russia taking up positions in Crimea, the Russian parliament authorizing sending troops into Ukraine, and Obama threatening that there will be "costs" if Russia moves into part of Ukraine.
Where Do the People's Interests Lie?
None of these clashes and maneuvering between rival world powers and rival Ukrainian capitalists have done anything positive for the people who've suffered enormously under one predatory, oppressive government after another. The vaunted deal now cut by the West with Ukraine is more of the same, and there's nothing positive about the current configuration of power or the outcome of the current crisis in Ukraine. Instead, truly grave dangers loom.
However, the sudden, unexpected emergence of this crisis, seemingly out of nowhere, does reveal an aspect of the impermanence of the existing order. The imperialists themselves sense this potential. The German newspaper Der Spiegel called the clash in Ukraine and heightened rivalry between the U.S., the EU, and Russia "a chess game in a minefield."
The existing world order will not fundamentally change without conscious forces acting on it, but it is not a wall of permanence and stability, particularly now. All this underscores, once again, the crying need to work urgently for the emergence of genuine revolutionary communist leadership to forge another path for humanity, away from this dark past of oppressive regimes and cynical wars. Without this, imperialist and reactionary forces will continue to plunge the world into new, unprecedented nightmares.
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